We’re still one year away from the Season 8 premiere of Game of Thrones on HBO, which means we’re one year away from finally finding out who, if anyone, will sit on the Iron Throne (there is always the possibility that all the fighting will result in Westeros imploding). Boston-based data scientist Taylor Larkin knows that a big caveat to getting to sit on the throne is staying alive, something easier said than done in Game of Thrones. He’s now created an algorithm that predicts which major character on GoT will die next. It’s not looking good for First of Her Name, Breaker of Chains, Mother of Dragons.
Larkin studied the Wiki pages of 2,000 characters both living and dead from A Song of Ice and Fire and noted their title, gender, nobility, status, age, and number of dead relatives, using this information to determine which houses were more susceptible to death in Season 8.
The study found that there were three major groups that were closely associated with death. One was the Night’s Watch, which makes sense since these are the men who devote their lives to protecting the wall. With Season 7 ending with a shot of the dragon Viserion now a member of the Army of the Dead, things aren’t looking good for any of the Crows.
As for the less obvious targets for Season 8, Larkin’s study found that House Targaryen is at high risk, with 67 per cent of their members already dead. With Danerys Targaryen as the head of the house, things aren’t looking good for the Mother of Dragons. Plus, with the Season 7 confirmation that Jon Snow is half Targaryen, there’s a chance the King in the North won’t make it to the Iron Throne. As for the third group, the Lannister siblings of Cersei, Jamie and Tyrion and their advancing ages make them a risk.
Larkin’s study found that women tend to die less in Game of Thrones, most likely because they aren’t involved in as many battles. He also noted that members of northern cultures are less likely to die, while those who are Valyrian are more likely to die.
Looking at the 10 major characters for Season 8 of Game of Thrones and examining their age, gender, house, and number of dead relatives, Larkin compiled his findings into a chart showing who is most likely to die. So, spoilers, kinda, if you’re really into math.
Daenerys Targaryen – 83.77% chance of death
Jaime Lannister – 72.91% chance of death
Tyrion Lannister – 70.76% chance of death
Bran Stark – 66.02% chance of death
Cersei Lannister – 60.39% chance of death
Jon Snow – 58.99% chance of death
Euron Greyjoy – 54.95% chance of death
Sansa Stark – 50.28% chance of death
Arya Stark – 49.04% chance of death
Gendry – 39.87% chance of death