We’ve been joking about it pretty much since he took office, but it looks like there’s a real chance that Donald Trump will be impeached at some point in the next four years. This isn’t just speculation either. This is a real political prediction from the man who has correctly predicted every American presidential election since 1984. It’s safe to say he’s got his finger on the pulse of the American presidency.
Allan L. Lichtman has been called the Prediction Professor by U.S. media and has a system called The Keys to the White House which he uses to predict elections, including that of Donald Trump. In his new book, The Case for Impeachment, he outlines eight possible ways that Trump may (probably) be impeached during his term.
Although his impeachment prediction is not as scientific as his Keys to the White House, Lichtman has more than enough experience at political analysis to make an informed call. His book is based on a deep study of the history and process of impeachment as well as Trump’s record before and during the first few months of his presidency.
So, what is the most likely way to see President Trump turn into President Pence? (Yes, people, Mike Pence becomes president if DT gets ousted). According to Lichtman, it’s the Russia connection. Isn’t that some Scandal-level drama? If it turns out the president was colluding with Putin, that can actually be defined as an act of treason. Definitely an impeachable offence.
Other reasons include Trump’s problems with women, crimes against humanity (for his stance on climate change), abuses of power and removal under the 25th amendment for being temperamentally unfit (wouldn’t that be ironic?).
Lichtman also includes a chapter entitled “The Way Out” which details exactly how Trump can avoid impeachment. Litchtman joked that since Trump praised him for predicting his win last November, perhaps he will listen to his suggestions for running the country.
So there you have it: the U.S. might not be stuck with President Trump as long as we assumed they would be. If the thought of Trump being impeached fills you with glee, hold off on your celebrations for just a second though. The road to impeachment is a long one so it probably won’t happen as quickly as you hope. Also, it’s entirely possible that a president may technically be impeached but not actually have to leave office (see: Bill Clinton). Finally, impeaching Trump likely wouldn’t remove his administration so that still leaves the aforementioned hard right-winger Mike Pence in the highest seat in the land.
What all this means is basically that Trump might be guilty of quite a few impeachable offences and he might get impeached for one of them, but that happening might not really change anything. Only time will tell if Lichtman’s predictions are correct, but with his record, we’re not making any assumptions either way.